The Coin Analyst: A Second Look at the Prospects for the Gold Kennedy Coins

By Louis Golino for CoinWeek

F. Scott Fitzgerald famously said: “”The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

fitzgerald 275x185 The Coin Analyst: A Second Look at the Prospects for the Gold Kennedy CoinsThat quote came to mind over the past week as I was thinking about the forthcoming release next Tuesday of the single most-anticipated U.S. coin of the year, the dual dated, 1964-2014 50th anniversary of the Kennedy half dollar gold coin, and the U.S. Mint’s plans for selling the coin.  I think Fitzgerald’s quote is relevant in this context because so many people are rushing to the conclusion, as I did in my previous article, that the coin’s unlimited mintage will probably doom its aftermarket potential.  In fact, the more I thought about it, learned about the Mint’s plans and discussed the issue with industry insiders, the more I came to realize that perhaps the opposite view is equally, and perhaps more, valid.

As Ian Russell, President of Great Collections, said: “Although the Mint is producing an ‘unlimited’ number of Kennedy coins, the key aspect is the household limit of five coins.  This will ensure that the coins are spread around – and there will be a secondary market instantly.  If the Mint lifts this limit, then the coins will be freely available and the secondary market will be affected.  I personally like the coin (the design is iconic) and expect demand worldwide.  Already we have clients wanting 100 coins each, similar to the Reverse Proof Buffalos last year.”

Remember that the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle gold coin also had an unlimited mintage and reached a mintage of 114,427.  But probably the key reason the market for that coin has remained healthy is that buyers’ were limited to one coin per household for the first few months.  That made it more challenging for dealers to acquire the inventory they needed for their clients, so at coin shows during the year when the Mint sold the coin on-site such as at the Long Beach show that summer, they continued to offer a premium to those who bought coins on their behalf.

Of course, only time will tell how it actually works out this time, but if the five per household limit is kept in place at least for some time, and the coin is not sold for too long a period, it is quite likely that demand will eventually exceed supply, and the coins will do fine.  The fact that so many people jumped to the same conclusion that the coin will be a failure in terms of appreciation makes me suspicious, as the herd (which I admit to initially being part of) is typically wrong, especially when it comes to financial matters.  That is precisely why most people buy high and sell low and lose money investing.  And the most important factor for collectors is that these coins are terrific, as can be seen in pictures that have shown up online taken by media representatives who went to the West Point Mint, where the coins were made.

2014 Kennedy 50th Gld Prf Pkg Open angle less yellow The Coin Analyst: A Second Look at the Prospects for the Gold Kennedy CoinsA lot of people poo-poohing the Gold Kennedy Coins have not yet seen them.

As far as the launch of the coins and the Mint’s special plans and procedures, which have been covered here at CoinWeek and elsewhere, they should help to some degree.  I think the Mint’s website will work better than it did when the baseball coins were sold, and that was certainly the case when almost 70,000 orders were received in the first 24 hours that the clad, two-coin set was available.  I managed to get right through the waiting room, got my order in within about two minutes, and my order is listed as in stock and reserved, which means it will ship soon.  That in itself is a big improvement.

At the ANA show, however, I am concerned that the use of tickets, side doors and so forth is not going to do much to reduce the pandemonium that is likely to ensue in Chicago.  And there are going to be a great deal more than 250 people each day of the show who want those tickets for the 500 coins to be sold each day.  Hopefully, the per person limit will be lowered to one, which is what I would have preferred to see for all sales venues, which will allow more people to get a coin at the show.

For some reason a certain amount of confusion continues to surround the profile of President Kennedy that will appear on the special tribute coins being issued this year.  All seven (2 clad, 1 gold, and 4 silver) will use the profile that appeared on the 1964 coins that has a higher relief in the profile’s sculpt and more subdued hair.  In subsequent years that sculpt was lowered, and the hair was given more definition.  So the coins will not be high relief, as NGC is indicating on their special labels for the coins, and as Charles Morgan and Hubert Walker explained last week, they are also not accented hair, which was a special variety of the 1964 proof coin.

A final issue is demand, which is admittedly not easy to predict, and how soon the coins are shipped.  I am pleased to know the Mint has produced 40,000 coins in advance of the start of sales.  I expect that supply to go quite quickly, probably during the first week the coins are available, and those who order during the first day or couple days will hopefully receive their coins much sooner than was the case with previous minted to demand coins.  That will make a big difference, as even buyers who could care less about first strike and early release labels don’t want to wait months for their coins.

All in all, next week is going to be an exciting time for American numismatics, and an important test of whether minted to demand coupled with household limits and a substantial initial inventory can strike the right balance between leveling (to some degree) the playing field for buyers, while not leading to an excess of supply over demand.

And the silver sets coming this fall may be the most anticipated of all the special JFK coins for 2014.  I sincerely hope the Mint is able to stick to its plan to have the new order management system in place for the launch of those coins because they are going to be huge, certainly the biggest sellers of this program.  I can’t wait, especially after seeing the pics.

 

Copyright © CoinWeek – June 2014

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golino The Coin Analyst: A Second Look at the Prospects for the Gold Kennedy CoinsLouis Golino is a coin collector and numismatic writer, whose articles on coins have appeared in Coin WorldNumismatic News, and a number of different coin web sites. His article, “Proposed Design Change Takes Flight,” which deals with the CCAC’s recommendation for a new reverse for the American silver eagle, appears in the July issue of the NumismatistHis column for CoinWeek, “The Coin Analyst,” covers U.S. and world coins and precious metals. He collects U.S. and European coins and is a member of the ANA,PCGSNGCand CACHe has also worked for the U.S. Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of newspapers and web sites.

About the Author:

Louis Golino is a numismatic journalist and writer specializing in modern coin issues. He has been writing a weekly column for Coin Week since May 2011 called "The Coin Analyst," which focuses primarily on modern U.S. and world coins and developments at major world mints, and is also a contributor to two magazines, American Hard Assets and the Numismatist, the American Numismatic Association's monthly publication. His work has also appeared in Coin World, Numismatic News, and various coin web sites. He collects classic and modern U.S. coins and modern world coins from a number of different countries. He first joined the ANA in the 1970's. He has also worked for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress and has been a syndicated columnist and news analyst on international affairs for a wide variety of publications. He has been writing professionally since the early 1980's.

11 Comments on "The Coin Analyst: A Second Look at the Prospects for the Gold Kennedy Coins"

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  1. Ikaika says:

    Thank you for another great article Louis. Indeed it will be very interesting to see how all this will unfold next week. There is much talk already about what will happen at the ANA show. From a collector point of view, the gold coin should be very unique. Investiment wise, not so sure. The premium added by the mint is also high.

    • Louis Golino says:

      Thanks, Ikaika. Glad you enjoyed it. I agree it’s best to put the enjoyment first and if it does well, all the better.

  2. Dennis says:

    Louis,

    Thanks for showing this in a different light. As always your articles provide much “food for thought”. I love the look of this coin and want one for my collection. If I get in early enough I will by all five and hope to sell four to pay for the one I keep.
    Kind of like something else I used to do in the sixties. ( HaHa)

    • Louis says:

      Thanks, Dennis. Enjoy!

      • Skm says:

        Hello Louis,

        Thanks for the insightful article. It will be intereting to see the rollout of the JFK coin in Chicago and our individual experiences with the Mint ordering process. The landscape changes from week to week.

        Regards,

        Steve

        • Louis Golino says:

          Thanks a lot, Steve. We are always interested in hearing how things go for buyers. Let the frenzy begin!

  3. John says:

    Hi Louis: I enjoy your articles very much. I have a question regarding the gold Kennedy. I initially read that the diameter of the coin will be the same as the current half and that a thicker planchet would be used so as to bring the weight of the coin to .75 troy ounce. After seeing the COA in the West Point pictures
    the thickness of the coin is 2.15 mm which is the same as the clad and the 1964 silver Kennedy half. As far as the weight of the coins, the clad coin weighs .365 troy, the 1964 silver half weighed .402 troy, the gold half weighs .75 troy. I assume that gold is a heavier metal but the difference between the silver and gold half is too great for it not to affect the thickness of the gold coin. Could you find the answer to this question?
    Thanks,
    John

    • Louis Golino says:

      Hi John, The gold coins have the same diameter and thickness as other JFK halves and it has .75 oz of gold. The reason is gold is twice as dense as silver.

  4. Louis says:

    As you my know by now, yesterday the Mint decided to lower the sales limit for over the counter sales at the ANA and other locations beginning Tuesday to one. This is a very welcome decision in terms of fairly distributing the coin.

  5. Mammoth says:

    Louis,
    In a comment the other day you said, “We are always interested in hearing how things go for buyers. Let the frenzy begin!”

    I was already at the Mint’s website at 11:45 a.m. EST, and entered the ‘waiting room’ as soon as it opened up. From there, it was an hour’s wait until I was finally sent to the page where I ordered the coin. From that point on the process went smoothly.

    So now the question is – when will the coin actually be shipped?

    Best,
    Mammoth

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