Rare Coin Road Warrior – Are You A BELIEVER?
Dear Rare Coin Enthusiast…. Remember that Rod Stewart song-Maggie Mae? The lyrics of the song go something like this, ‘it’s late September and I really should be back at school’.
Strange as this might sound, the coin business is starting to get that back to school or work feel to it. In just the last couple of weeks, mostly because of rising bullion levels and the uncertainty the upcoming election brings, we have seen a decided spike in activity among dealers. Although our collector sales via Ebay and our website have been slow, dealers are ‘feeling it’. I can’t even really quantify the ‘feeling’, but the market is moving and IT FEELS REAL!
O.K. Vic, cry ‘wolf’ again. Yes, you may be right. I might be wrong, but the feeling I have deep inside is that we are going to see some significant changes in the coin market this Fall. With rising bullion prices, dealers seem to let out a sigh of relief. Yes, for the most part, we are ‘believers’. Believers in what, you might ask? Well, I’ll tell you.
Since my introduction to rare coins in the seventies I have seen markets rise and fall. I experienced the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the silver bullion market and their subsequent failure. I have seen the beginning of PCGS and NGC and the mostly positive changes these two grading services have brought to the market. I was there during the Y2K hype. AND, I have seen the collapse of the coin market several times in the last 35 years, but…..I have also seen the market COME ALIVE on four separate occasions in the last 35 years!
The signs are all there. Morgan Dollars in MS65 were as low as $115 on a wholesale level less than 60 days ago. Currently wholesale levels are roughly $140 for nice white PCGS coins. Generic $20 Saints and Libs. in MS62, 63, 64, and 65 have risen somewhere between 11 and 15% pretty much paralleling the rise in gold bullion prices. BUT, and this is the biggest difference. DEALERS want to buy coins.
Yes, dealers are, for the most part, always buying-we have to. The difference between now and just a few short weeks ago is how aggressively dealers are buying. Now, instead of one or two market makers grudgingly buying the minimum amount they are bidding for, there are multiple bidders pushing the prices up, especially on bullion related items, almost daily. Collectors haven’t realized it. For the most part the public hasn’t realized it, but dealers recognize the SIGNS and the market is moving up NOW.
Yes, I am hyped! You see, as a true believer in the underlying value of rare coins, I have seen the markets come and go, but have never lost faith that IN THE LONG TERM rare coins are a great store of value AND in the present economy the SKY is the LIMIT.
I am not a bullion guy-I am a RARE COIN guy. Although I like bullion presently and I believe it has tremendous upside, I believe rare coins have even more upside. Why? Bullion is mined and produced on a daily basis. Depending on the price of gold or silver, more mines will reopen and more will be produced. But as I talked about in my Road Warrior article earlier this month, it is ALL about supply and DEMAND. Because the supply of rare coins is finite, once the available numbers of coins on the market are gone prices won’t rise slowly, they will EXPLODE.
The crazy part about rare coins is that we, as dealers, are jaded. We see lots of neat coins. We buy and sell them and become numb. Most folks don’t see rare coins on a daily basis and only a small percentage have any idea how rare or scarce some items are. Yes, we know as dealers, how relatively common certain items are. But once again, I am going to reiterate HOW MUCH demand has to do with it.
Once the current supply of rare coins on the market are sold, prices have no where to go but UP! In addition, only rising prices will bring more coins on the market. My argument is that the prices must go up SIGNIFICANTLY before we have any big increase in supply. Because many coins were sold during markets where prices were significantly higher, those individuals holding these older higher cost basis items are going to be reluctant to sell until the prices rise significantly which will PUSH the market even faster.
Don’t get me wrong, I have never been an ‘all or nothing’ guy. BUT, I have ALL my eggs in this BASKET and the hen isn’t laying anymore. Are you a BELIEVER?
Our show schedule for the next couple of months is as follows:
- PCGS Invitational/Las Vegas, NV
- Silver Dollar Show/St. Charles, MO
- ANA Fall Show/Dallas, TX
- Denver Coin Show, Denver, CO
- Whitman Coin Expo./Baltimore, MD
- Houston Money Show, Houston, TX
Bozarth Numismatics Inc is a full service rare coin dealer. We buy and sell PCGS, NGC, and CAC graded and approved high grade U.S. coins. We sell coins at shows and on both our website bozarthcoins.com and in our Ebay store bozarthnumismaticsinc. Because of our extensive show and buying travel schedule we can often locate those ‘hard to find’ items. We offer free confidential want list services and will call or email you ‘first’ if we locate an item for you. Thanks and Best Regards, Vic Bozarth/The Rare Coin Road Warrior.