Looking forward to 2014/2015 Ancient Coin Market Conditions
By Geoffrey Cope www.petitioncrown.com
A few years ago I proposed that Coin Collecting / Numismatics should be classed as an ASSET CLASS in their own right. I considered that having a mix of different asset classes can assist to reduce your overall risk and volatility and assist to preserve your hard earned wealth. Coins are just one vehicle and like all investments can rise and fall in value. We call it volatility. The interesting position with Coin Collecting / Numismatics which although an old hobby is rapidly becoming an Asset Class in that money has always created a fascination for individuals. Even in Roman times people were prepared to pay more for coins not in circulation.
Wine for drinking or investment?
Neither, I prefer COINS
Equities/Stocks & Bonds carry risk, as you must consider that past performance does not guarantee the future results.
A Guaranteed income is but a mirage of a ‘rainbow’, as the higher the interest, the higher the risk. Most individual consider that Banks belong to the government, but the reality and truth is they are just regular companies and can also go bankrupt if clients request all their funds be returned to them.
Is your House your Home or an Investment? In reality it is a place to live. One of the first criteria we aim for is to protect future purchasing power, a number which in fact is greater than inflation and also linked to the issuing of ‘FIAT’ money. Gold is an asset that you hold not as a profit making instrument, but as security against instability in the currency systems or anything that affects economic stability.
Numismatics / Coin Collecting
Market conditions in 2014. It does not take a ‘rocket scientist’ to know that prices are rising like a rocket on quality pieces and on specific rarities.
The questions being asked are what to purchase in a specific market where there is room for growth over the coming years. As this requires a ‘crystal ball’ to see, the best consensus advice is to buy the highest quality items you can afford.
There are areas that are worth highlighting in the British and Imperial Roman Market areas that offer possibilities for growth over the next say 2-3 years.
The important factor in both these markets are that they were both Empires and have a strong foundation of interest and following World Wide. The internet is still in its infancy creating a new World Wide market without Borders.
Take the British market, specifics:
The area of Bronze and Copper half pennies and farthings show they are running way behind other segments of the market and could have 300%-400% growth potential in the near future.
All hammered coins from Edward I onwards have the opportunity for 200%-300% growth. They are interesting, have stories to tell and the portraits in most cases are attractive.
Roman Bronzes, specifically the Imperial Bronzes are set for a jump of several times today’s prices.
We learn at school about Hadrian, Galba, Septimus Severus, Trajan etc. so is there a catch? Yes! Once again they are required to be of wonderful quality.
Why Bronzes? The metal does not survive well in the earth and so most hoard or lost coins deteriorated badly from chemical reactions, with the patina reflecting the place they were found such as volcanic areas, differing aciditiy or alkalinity of the local earth types, a ‘River Tiber’ Patina (Beware of tooled, smoothed re oxidized patinas) Look for natural Bronzes that are just washed in water, gently cleaned to their patination only. They are rare, so do not be in a hurry to build your collection.
I decided to discuss for 2015 what I consider the interesting future areas not comment on the present market.