By Laura Sperber - Legend Numismatics
First, we'd like to apologize for the tweet we sent out when we got the show about the show being DOA. It really was the thin air that got us woozy. THE SHOW WAS NOT DOA. It did have a light pulse.
While lightly attended by the public and dealers, the show DID have a little activity. The people who did go were there to do business. For a small show, it was well run and very nice. Its just why do it for so little of an audience?
In the end, we bought and sold more than we thought we would, but overall the number were weak for a major show. We barely spent $150,000.00 (which is nothing for us). Of that $150,000.00 NOTHING was for Want Lists. Dealers are now running into a very unique problem: NO nice coins to trade. Sure, you can buy and sell dreck for cents on the dollar, however when was the last time you saw your favorite dealer with a GEM Bust Half, GEM 28S $1, or even an Ultra High Relief (the real coin). Its like a depression on the bourse floor right now among bigger and better dealers. Of course the fact generic gold is tanking even further hits isn't helping. Now is definitely a buying time-IF you can find the coins. Pay the premiums, you will NOT regret it.
One thing we did not miss was having an auction at the show. We felt it was refreshing to take a breather from that game. Dealers were able to work amongst themselves with NO distractions. Plus, there were no grading services grading on site. Still the show went on-imagine that. We're so spoiled about the fact every major show MUST have all these things to be successful. How times have changed!
THIS IS ONE MAJOR REASON WHY COINS ARE IN HIDING
Prices are stalled. Prices SHOULD be going up but in many cases they are not. Why? Its more than a lack of coins trading. The printed rags are killing the market (like public enemy #1-the CDN) by showing ridiculous numbers from a decade ago. This leads collectors to make false assumptions as to the worth of a coin. Here is a real example of something that just happened to us.
We got offered by a collector a GEM 1850 $1 PCGS/CAC MS64 POP 2 NONE HIGHER coin. The collector who owned (and us) LOVED the coin and knew it was worth more than the rags said. Their cost on the coin was $42,000.00. The last auction appearance for the coin was in 2004. Back then it realized $29,000.00. That's 8 years without ANY being auctioned. The current CDN greysheet bid showed an insane $21,500.00. How inept! We valued the coin at $50,000.00-but we can't pay that fully because the sheets are so low and there are NO new numbers to support it. Remember, this is a POP 2 coin with NONE higher. There should have been NO printed price. We probably should have bought it, but the customer was gun shy around that level. And based upon what he can research, he should be. To anyone other then him at the moment it probably would have been a hard sell-even though at $50,000.00 the coin WOULD add value to his collection.
For the CDN to have any price at all is a disgrace and hurts everyone. They are a for profit rag that simply wants to rely on dealers and collectors telling it info. for free so they can make money. In this case, it was clear they had done NO research in ages about this cois real value. What they are doing is ruining a market. They either need to go away or get a competent reporter. So here are 2 coins (the 2 certified) now trapped in purgatory pricing unless 2 brave and intelligent people bid it up in an auction. Something needs to be immediately fixed with the pricing system. This is why we tell you to trust auction archives. At least you can see it was a $30,000.00 coin 8 years ago, not today!
This situation happens every frequently. If you were to buy the coin for $50,000.00 for the long term, chances are strong you'd make a good profit. Its just getting over the hump of fear to buy it.
UPDATE: After stepping back, BOTH parties changed their numbers and a deal has been done. The deal was BELOW $50,000.00.
NO MORE PREIDCTIONS ON GOLD
Nice we said gold is cheap last week. Then BAM! A correction happens. The great news-NO ONE WAS SELLING. In fact when gold was down the 2nd day, people were looking to buy. Generics did show a minor "dead cat" bounce in activity-with the prices falling only slightly. We can tell you NO CAC market maker we know took down ANY of their sightuneen bids. Collectors definitely were still looking to sock away some better CAC gold. The ONLY problem-no one can find hardly ANY better date gold at the moment!